Canada not on pace to meet targets to reduce immigration levels in Canada
2024 was an unprecedented year, to state it mildly, for immigration changes in Canada. In the span of a single calendar year, numerous foundational immigration programs were cut or capped, with the explicit objective of reducing the number of newcomers to Canada. These efforts were branded as a course correction in response to growing sentiments that Canada did not have sufficient infrastructure to accommodate so many newcomers after years of unsustainable immigration-fueled growth. This ultimately led to another first for the Department of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) when it boisterously announced in the Fall of 2024 that it would begin setting specific targets for the number of temporary residents living in Canada in any given year. However, let’s see what the numbers show! Recently released data shows that IRCC’s plans are going awry.
On June 18, 2025, Statistics Canada released its population growth report covering the period January 1 to April 1, 2025. Here are the key takeaways from the report that all prospective immigrants will want to know:
Population Growth Stagnant: Canada’s population grew by only 20,107 people in the first quarter of 2025. Immigration accounted for all the growth in population due to Canada’s low birth rate and aging population.
Non-Permanent Resident Levels Remain Stubbornly High: Among the targets set by IRCC in the Fall of 2024 was the goal of reducing the non-permanent (temporary) resident population in Canada by 445,901 in 2025 (or about 111,475 per quarter), which is set within a more ambitious plan to ensure temporary residents represent only 5% of Canada’s total population by the end of 2026.
Despite these lofty targets, Statistics Canada’s report shows that the federal government is well behind schedule. According to the report, there were almost 3 million (2,959,825) temporary residents (including workers, students, and asylum seekers and related groups) living in Canada on April 1, 2025. The temporary resident population dropped by only 61,111 individuals since January 1, 2025, representing 7.1% of the total population of Canada. Part of the shortfall is accounted for by an unexpected increase in asylum seekers and protected persons in the first quarter of 2025.
International Students Most Affected: International students are suffering the brunt of IRCC’s objective of reducing the number of temporary residents in Canada. As of April 1, 2025, there were 53,669 fewer students living in Canada, with most of them having been resident in British Columbia and Ontario, which are the top destination provinces for international students. While there is always turnover when international students graduate from their studies and either return home or switch their status to becoming workers, the notable drop in the student population can only be explained by fewer new applications being made and approved by IRCC.
This data is consistent with what industry professionals are experiencing in their line of work. A December 2024 report issued by Colleges & Institutes Canada, a national association representing more than 130 member institutions including public colleges, institutes, and polytechnics, states that study permit applications to their member institutions had dropped by 54% compared to the same period a year ago.
On the legal front, as an immigration lawyer I am seeing a high rate of refusal for new international student applications, even for those clients who have been accepted to attend top universities that have historically experienced lower rates of refusals. Educational institutions are now changing their own business practices and staffing in response.
For example, until this past year I rarely heard about clients having trouble gaining admission to programs of study here in Canada. However, in a recent case I dealt with, my client was rejected admission to a flight school after his application was scrutinized based on immigration factors. The school determined that it was unlikely the client would be approved for a study permit and decided not to offer him one of their coveted Provincial Attestation Letters, which became a requirement last year after IRCC implemented an annual cap on international students arriving in Canada.
Permanent Resident Approvals Remain High: Canada welcomed 104,256 new permanent residents to Canada in the first quarter of 2025. Though this number represents a decrease compared to the same period in 2024, it is still a higher number than expected given IRCC’s stated goals to reduce permanent residence approvals for the next few years.
The Statistics Canada report shows that the government’s policy to reduce temporary residents in Canada is significantly behind schedule. International students have been disproportionately affected by immigration changes, and the integrity of our international student program is harmed when refusals appear arbitrary and not based upon the merits of any person’s application. On the other hand, so far foreign workers have been resilient in the face of immigration changes, and many of them continue to transition to permanent residence, as demonstrated by the Q1 statistics.
Moving forward, it is clear that immigration will continue to be crucial to Canada’s prosperity. With effectively 0% population growth at present, IRCC needs to find the right balance to stimulate economic growth without needlessly turning away students and workers that we need to contribute to the economy and harming our standing in the international community as a welcoming place for newcomers.
For more information regarding the unprecedented changes that took place in 2024 please refer to our previous blog here: https://canadian-visa-lawyer.com/navigating-the-winds-of-change-to-canadas-immigration-program-a-year-in-review/
